Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid — Segunda División: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Sporting GijonValladolidSporting GijonValladolidMatch preview
Sporting Gijon host Valladolid in Segunda División matchday 13
Sporting Gijon welcome Valladolid on matchday 13 of the Segunda División, with the hosts sixth in the table on 22 points from 12 games. Nicolás Larcamón's side arrive having won four of their last five, the latest a 2-0 success at AD Ceuta FC on 1 November.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Valladolid, managed by Fran Escribá, sit 13th on 15 points from 12 games, seven places and seven points behind their opponents. They have won three of their last five, most recently 4-3 at home to Leganes on 2 November.
Both sides have faced Albacete this month: Sporting won 2-1 at home on 17 October, while Valladolid beat the same opponents 5-0 at home on 12 October. Sporting have won three of their last five home games, whereas Valladolid have drawn three of their last five away.
Across their last 5 meetings, Sporting Gijon won 1, Valladolid won 2, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Sporting Gijon 2–2 Valladolid on 22 February 2026. Sporting Gijon's latest win in this sample was Valladolid 2–3 Sporting Gijon on 19 October 2025. Valladolid's latest win in this sample was Valladolid 2–0 Sporting Gijon on 11 August 2023.
Sporting Gijon have won four of their last five, conceding six goals, while Valladolid have won three of five and scored 13 but conceded eight.
Valladolid's away record shows three draws in their last five away games, while Sporting have won three of their last five at home.
Sporting Gijon meet Valladolid in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 17:30 UTC at El Molinón-Enrique Castro "Quini".
Team pages: Sporting Gijon · Valladolid · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Sporting Gijon 58% · Draw 23% · Valladolid 19%
Strength rating gives Sporting Gijon a clear lead — Sporting Gijon sit 95 points higher on our strength rating, 1518 to 1424, and the usual home advantage adds to that, so we give them 58%. The draw starts from the usual 25% for a gap this size and drops to 23% because both sides' own recent games average 3.1 goals.
Why Sporting Gijon at 58%?
Sporting Gijon sit 95 points higher on our strength rating — 1518 to 1424. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 52–30–18.
Why only 58%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 58% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Valladolid at 19%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
In our recorded league results, Valladolid are winless in their last 16 away games: 5 draws and 11 defeats. The run began on 31 January 2026. Last recorded away league win: 17 January 2026 — AD Ceuta FC 0–3 Valladolid. Latest recorded away league result: 23 October 2026 — Granada CF 2–1 Valladolid. Across 14,301 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 24.5%, compared with 24.1% expected from team strength. Valladolid won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Sporting Gijon. The record is 3 wins for Valladolid, 2 draws and 1 win for Sporting Gijon. These were 6 Segunda División games played at both grounds between 23 October 2021 and 22 February 2026. Latest meeting: 22 February 2026 — Sporting Gijon 2–2 Valladolid. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Sporting Gijon and Valladolid team pages or the Segunda División page.