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Match preview
Castellón vs Eibar — the facts
Castellón meet Eibar in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 19:30 UTC at Estadio SkyFi Castalia.
Team pages: Castellón · Eibar · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Castellón 51% · Draw 26% · Eibar 23%
Strength rating gives Castellón a slight lean — We give Castellón 51% mainly because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1621 to 1565, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw sits at 26%, just under the usual rate of 27% for a gap this size, nudged down slightly because both sides' own recent games average 2.9 goals.
Why Castellón at 51%?
Castellón sit 56 points higher on our strength rating — 1621 to 1565. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 11,124 such games.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Eibar at 23%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,348.
What did we measure but not count?
A 17-point possession gap between near-equal sides is unusual. Gaps this extreme are too rare to receipt — around 399 measured games, under our 300-game floor — so it's noted at 0 points. Castellón have gained 80 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,000 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Castellón vs Eibar, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Castellón and Eibar team pages or the Segunda División page.