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CadizOviedoCadizOviedoMatch preview
Cadiz host Oviedo in Segunda División clash between 20th and 9th
Cadiz welcome Oviedo to Nuevo Mirandilla on Matchday 13 of the Segunda División, with the sides separated by eleven places. The home side are 20th on 10 points from 12 games, while Julian Calero's Oviedo sit 9th on 18, eight points ahead of Borja Jiménez's team.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Cadiz arrive having lost three of their last five, scoring seven and conceding seven in that spell. They failed to score in two of those games, the 1-0 home defeat to Sporting Gijon and a 2-0 loss at Granada CF, before winning 3-1 at home to AD Ceuta FC and 3-1 away at Xerez. Their latest outing was a 2-1 defeat at Mallorca.
Oviedo have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five, scoring 12 and conceding 10 without a clean sheet. They beat AD Ceuta FC 2-1 away, drew 2-2 at Almeria and 3-3 at Numancia, then lost 3-2 at home to Las Palmas last time out. Of their last five away games, Oviedo have won one, drawn two and lost two.
Across their last 5 meetings, Cadiz won 3, Oviedo won 2, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Oviedo 2–1 Cadiz on 1 June 2025. Cadiz's latest win in this sample was Cadiz 2–0 Oviedo on 26 October 2024.
Cadiz have lost three of their last five and Oviedo are unbeaten in three of theirs before the home defeat to Las Palmas, though Oviedo have conceded in every one of those five games.
Both sides have faced AD Ceuta FC recently: Cadiz beat them 3-1 at home, while Oviedo won 2-1 away.
Cadiz meet Oviedo in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:15 UTC at JP Financial Estadio.
Team pages: Cadiz · Oviedo · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Cadiz 34% · Draw 25% · Oviedo 41%
Oviedo's higher strength rating gives them the edge — Oviedo sit 138 points higher on our strength rating, 1524 to 1386, which is enough to give them 41% even with the usual home advantage Cadiz start with. The draw begins near 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 25% because both sides' own recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why Oviedo at 41%?
Oviedo sit 138 points higher on our strength rating — 1524 to 1386. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–27–43.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Cadiz at 34%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Cadiz are 3 games into a new manager (Borja Jiménez), appointed 13 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Cadiz vs Oviedo, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Cadiz and Oviedo team pages or the Segunda División page.