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Girona host second-placed Almeria on Segunda División matchday 13
Girona welcome Almeria to Estadio Municipal de Montilivi in the Segunda División on matchday 13, with the league table separating the sides by five places. Almeria sit second on 26 points from 12 games, while Girona are seventh on 21 points, five behind their visitors.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Almeria arrive unbeaten in 10 games. Across their last five they have won three and drawn two, scoring 12 goals and conceding six. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw away to Eibar, following a 2-1 win at Castellonense.
Girona's last five brought three wins, one draw and one defeat, with 10 goals scored and three conceded. They lost 1-0 at Real Sociedad II last time out, having won 2-0 at Cuarte and beaten Celta de Vigo II 5-1 at home in the games before that. Quique Alvarez's side have kept two clean sheets in that run.
Across their last 5 meetings, Girona won 3, Almeria won 1, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Almeria 0–0 Girona on 14 January 2024. Girona's latest win in this sample was Girona 5–2 Almeria on 22 October 2023. Almeria's latest win in this sample was Almeria 3–2 Girona on 20 October 2022.
Almeria's last five contain no defeat, while Girona come in having lost their most recent game 1-0 at Real Sociedad II.
Both sides have faced Real Sociedad II recently: Almeria won 4-2 away there on 17 October, whereas Girona lost 1-0 there on 31 October.
Girona meet Almeria in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 13). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 15:15 UTC at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
Team pages: Girona · Almeria · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Girona 47% · Draw 26% · Almeria 27%
Home advantage gives Girona a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Girona's home advantage puts them in front at 47%, helped by Almeria scoring above their chances lately, a hot streak of the kind that tends to cool. The draw sits at 26%, a little under the usual 27.5% for sides this level, pulled down by finishing streaks.
Why Girona in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1623 to 1589. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%). Almeria scored +0.57 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.7% of 1,684 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 47%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 26% and Almeria at 27%.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Girona scored +0.58 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. Almeria have gained 61 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Girona vs Almeria, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Girona and Almeria team pages or the Segunda División page.