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Ascoli
PalermoAscoliPalermoMatch preview
Ascoli host Serie B leaders Palermo on matchday 11
Ascoli welcome Palermo to the Cino e Lillo Del Duca on matchday 11 of Serie B, with the table placing the hosts third on 19 points from 10 games. Francesco Tomei's side are unbeaten in six matches, though three of their last five league outings ended as draws, the latest a goalless game at Arezzo.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Palermo arrive top of the table on 26 points, seven clear of Ascoli, with Filippo Inzaghi's team unbeaten in 13 games. Their last five brought four wins and a draw, with 14 goals scored. They won 4-2 at Empoli and 2-0 at Mantova, drew 3-3 at Pisa, and beat Vicenza Virtus 3-1 last time out.
Ascoli's recent defending has been tight: three clean sheets and only two goals conceded in their last five, including a 6-1 win at Catanzaro and a 2-0 home win over Sampdoria. At home they have taken three wins and two draws from their last five, scoring eight and conceding three, while Palermo have won three and drawn two of their last five away games.
Across their last 5 meetings, Ascoli won 1, Palermo won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Palermo 2–2 Ascoli on 5 May 2024. Ascoli's latest win in this sample was Palermo 2–3 Ascoli on 27 August 2022. Palermo's latest win in this sample was Ascoli 0–1 Palermo on 16 September 2023.
Palermo have won four of their last five and scored 14 goals, whereas Ascoli have drawn three of theirs and scored nine while conceding only two.
Both sides have faced Empoli recently: Ascoli drew 1-1 with them at home, while Palermo won 4-2 away.
Ascoli meet Palermo in the Serie B (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 19:30 UTC at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Referee: Rapuano Andrea.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Ascoli 31% · Draw 32% · Palermo 37%
Palermo's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — Palermo sit 139 points higher on our strength rating, 1592 to 1452, and home advantage runs weak across Serie B, so we give them 37% to Ascoli's 31%. The draw sits at 32%, lifted from a usual 28% by Serie B's high draw rate but pulled back by both sides' high-scoring recent games.
Why Palermo at 37%?
Palermo sit 139 points higher on our strength rating — 1592 to 1452. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,112 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–29–41.
Why only 37%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 37% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 32% and Ascoli at 31%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Ascoli win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points. The goals environment takes 3.0 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Ascoli have averaged 14 percentage points more possession than Palermo in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Palermo scored +0.33 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Ascoli vs Palermo, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie B fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Ascoli and Palermo team pages or the Serie B page.