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Pisa
SudtirolPisaSudtirolMatch preview
Pisa host Sudtirol in Serie B with one point and one place between them
Pisa welcome Sudtirol to the Arena Garibaldi on Serie B matchday 11 with the two sides separated by the narrowest of margins. Pisa are eighth on 15 points from ten games, while Sudtirol sit ninth on 14, so the higher-placed side is the home one by a single place.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Paolo Bianco's side arrive after a 2-0 defeat at Avellino on 1 November, which followed a 3-3 home draw with Palermo. Across their last five outings Pisa have won two, drawn two and lost one, scoring ten goals and conceding seven.
Davide Possanzini's Sudtirol have gone five games without a win. They drew 1-1 at home to Cesena on 31 October, after losing 2-0 at Padova, and across their last five they have drawn three, lost two and scored only twice while conceding seven.
Across their last 5 meetings, Pisa won 2, Sudtirol won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Pisa 3–3 Sudtirol on 9 May 2025. Pisa's latest win in this sample was Sudtirol 1–2 Pisa on 19 October 2024. Sudtirol's latest win in this sample was Pisa 0–1 Sudtirol on 4 February 2023.
Pisa have scored ten goals in their last five games, while Sudtirol have managed two in theirs without a single victory.
Of their last five away games Sudtirol have won one and lost three, scoring five goals and conceding eight.
Pisa meet Sudtirol in the Serie B (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Cetilar Arena. Referee: Alberto Poli.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Pisa 54% · Draw 31% · Sudtirol 15%
Pisa's stronger rating, tempered by weak Serie B home edge — We give Pisa 54% mainly because our strength rating puts them 90 points higher, 1441 to 1351, though home sides across Serie B tend to under-perform, which pulls a little towards Sudtirol. The draw sits at 31%, up from a usual 25% for this strength gap because Serie B games are drawn more often.
Why Pisa at 54%?
Pisa sit 90 points higher on our strength rating — 1441 to 1351. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 50–31–19.
Why only 54%?
Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,112 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Sudtirol win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Sudtirol have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Last five: Pisa W-W-D-D-L, Sudtirol D-L-D-L-D — Pisa are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Pisa vs Sudtirol, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie B fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Pisa and Sudtirol team pages or the Serie B page.