Mantova vs Hellas Verona — Serie B: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
MantovaHellas VeronaMantovaHellas VeronaMatch preview
Mantova host Hellas Verona in a Serie B clash between fourth and fifth
Matchday 11 of Serie B brings Hellas Verona to the Stadio Danilo Martelli, where Mantova sit fourth on 18 points after ten games. Verona are fifth on 15, three points behind and one place lower, so the result will either stretch or close a narrow gap in the upper reaches of the table.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Mantova, managed by Francesco Modesto, arrive after a 1-1 draw away to Modena, a game that followed a 2-0 home defeat by Cremonese. Across their last five they have won two, drawn one and lost two, scoring five and conceding six, and they failed to score in two of those matches.
Verona, under Marco Baroni, come in with two wins in a row, a 1-0 victory at Juve Stabia followed by a 3-0 home win over Carrarese. Their last five also include a 3-2 defeat at Modena and draws with Catanzaro and Pisa, yielding nine goals scored and six conceded.
Verona have won two and drawn two of their last five and scored in every one, while Mantova have won two, drawn one and lost two, failing to score twice.
Both sides have faced Modena recently: Mantova drew 1-1 there on their latest outing, while Verona lost 3-2 at the same opponent on 11 October.
Mantova meet Hellas Verona in the Serie B (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 16:15 UTC at Stadio Danilo Martelli – Pata Stadium. Referee: Guiseppe Collu.
Team pages: Mantova · Hellas Verona · Serie B
Sirius · Why these numbers
Mantova 36% · Draw 35% · Hellas Verona 29%
Too close to call despite Hellas Verona's stronger rating — Our strength rating has Hellas Verona 48 points higher, 1481 to 1433, but Mantova's usual home advantage keeps this too close to separate, even with home sides in Serie B doing weaker than the norm. The draw sits at 35%, up from a usual 29% because draws come round more often in Serie B.
Why Mantova at 36%?
Home ground, against the rating. Hellas Verona sit 48 points higher on our strength rating — 1481 to 1433. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games.
Why only 36%?
Because Hellas Verona are the stronger side on our strength rating. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,112 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Hellas Verona win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Hellas Verona played 3 competitive matches between 25 October and 1 November 2026 (UTC dates). Mantova played 2 matches in the same 14-day window before kickoff. The busier schedule is worth watching.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Mantova vs Hellas Verona, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie B fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Mantova and Hellas Verona team pages or the Serie B page.