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Carrarese
SampdoriaCarrareseSampdoriaMatch preview
Carrarese host Sampdoria with both sides in the lower half of Serie B
Carrarese welcome Sampdoria to the Stadio dei Marmi on Serie B matchday 11, with the hosts in 16th place on 10 points from 10 games. Guido Pagliuca's side have taken three wins from their last five league outings, though the most recent of those ended in a 3-0 defeat at Hellas Verona.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Sampdoria arrive in 19th, on 8 points from 10 games, three places and two points behind their hosts. Luca D'Angelo's team lost three of their last five, including a 4-1 defeat at Avellino, but finished that run with a 2-0 home win over Virtus Entella on 31 October.
Both sides have faced Arezzo in this spell: Carrarese won 2-1 at home on 28 October, while Sampdoria lost 2-1 to the same opponent at home on 18 October. Away from home, Sampdoria have lost four of their last five games and failed to score in two of them.
Across their last 4 meetings, Carrarese won 2, Sampdoria won 1, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Carrarese 2–0 Sampdoria on 18 March 2026. Sampdoria's latest win in this sample was Sampdoria 3–2 Carrarese on 7 December 2025.
Carrarese have won three of their last five and lost two, while Sampdoria have won one, drawn one and lost three.
Arezzo is the common opponent: Carrarese beat them 2-1 at home on 28 October, and Sampdoria lost 2-1 to them at home on 18 October.
Carrarese meet Sampdoria in the Serie B (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 16:15 UTC at Stadio dei Marmi – IV Olimpionici Azzurri.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Carrarese 37% · Draw 37% · Sampdoria 26%
Too close to call, with the draw very much live — Our strength rating has almost nothing between them, 1347 to 1327, and Carrarese's usual home edge is pegged back because Sampdoria have scored less than their chances deserved, and cold streaks like that have bounced back. The draw starts at 27.5% for sides this level and climbs to 37%, mainly because draws are common in Serie B.
Why Carrarese in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1347 to 1327. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 37%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Sampdoria sit -0.39 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,696 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,112 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw level with the Carrarese win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points. The goals environment adds 1.5 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Carrarese sit -0.42 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. In our recorded league results, Sampdoria are winless in their last 8 away games: 3 draws and 5 defeats. The run began on 25 April 2026. Last recorded away league win: 11 April 2026 — Pescara 1–2 Sampdoria. Latest recorded away league result: 27 October 2026 — Ascoli 2–0 Sampdoria. Across 14,301 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 24.5%, compared with 24.1% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Carrarese vs Sampdoria, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie B fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Carrarese and Sampdoria team pages or the Serie B page.