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PadovaEmpoliPadovaEmpoliMatch preview
Padova host winless Empoli in Serie B at Stadio Euganeo
Padova welcome Empoli to Stadio Euganeo on Serie B Matchday 11 with the home side tenth in the table on 14 points from ten games. Nicola Calabro's team come into the fixture unbeaten in their last two, having beaten Avellino 1-0 away and Sudtirol 2-0 at home before a 1-1 draw at Catanzaro on 31 October.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Empoli, managed by Matteo Andreoletti, sit 18th with eight points from their ten matches, six fewer than Padova. They have gone seven games without a win, and in their last five league outings they have drawn two and lost three, conceding 11 goals while scoring six.
Their most recent result was a 2-2 draw at home to Juve Stabia on 1 November, a game in which they scored twice for only the second time in that five-match spell. Padova, by contrast, kept two clean sheets in their last five.
Across their last 2 meetings, Padova won 1, Empoli won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Padova 1–0 Empoli on 12 April 2026. Empoli's latest win in this sample was Empoli 3–1 Padova on 23 August 2025.
Padova have won two of their last five and drawn one, while Empoli have not won any of theirs, drawing two and losing three.
Empoli have conceded eight goals in their last five away games, whereas Padova have kept two clean sheets in their last five home games.
Padova meet Empoli in the Serie B (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Stadio Comunale Euganeo. Referee: Giuseppe Mucera.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Padova 42% · Draw 36% · Empoli 22%
Home advantage edges Padova in a draw-heavy league — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1349 to 1336, the usual home advantage puts Padova in front at 42%, though home sides in Serie B under-perform the norm, which helps Empoli. The draw sits high at 36%, lifted from a usual 27.5% by Serie B's high draw rate and a typical 2.4-goal scoring average in each side's recent games.
Why Padova in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1349 to 1336. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 42%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,112 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Empoli win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points. The goals environment adds 1.5 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Padova have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Padova are 3 games into a new manager (N. Calabro), appointed 14 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Padova vs Empoli, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie B fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Padova and Empoli team pages or the Serie B page.