Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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CesenaCatanzaroCesenaCatanzaroMatch preview
Cesena host struggling Catanzaro at Dino Manuzzi in Serie B
Cesena welcome Catanzaro to the Dino Manuzzi on Serie B Matchday 11, with Alessandro Diamanti's side twelfth in the table on 12 points from 10 games. Michele Mignani's visitors sit 20th on six points, eight places and six points behind the hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Cesena come into the game after a 1-1 draw away to Sudtirol on 31 October, which followed a 2-1 home win over Empoli four days earlier. Across their last five they have won one, drawn two and lost two, scoring four goals and conceding eight.
Catanzaro have gone six games without a win. They drew 1-1 with Padova at home on 31 October and drew 1-1 at Benevento before that, though a 6-1 home defeat by Ascoli on 24 October sits in the same run. In their last five away games, Catanzaro have drawn two and lost three.
Across their last 5 meetings, Cesena won 2, Catanzaro won 3, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Cesena 3–1 Catanzaro on 21 March 2026. Catanzaro's latest win in this sample was Catanzaro 2–0 Cesena on 27 December 2025.
Cesena have won once in their last five, while Catanzaro have drawn three and lost two of theirs without a win.
Both sides have faced Benevento recently: Cesena lost 2-0 there on 10 October, while Catanzaro drew 1-1 on their visit on 27 October.
Cesena meet Catanzaro in the Serie B (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Orogel Stadium – Dino Manuzzi. Referee: M. Di Loreto.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Cesena 35% · Draw 35% · Catanzaro 30%
Too close to call, with the draw very much live — Cesena have the usual home advantage, but Catanzaro's habit of controlling the ball, 53 to 44 in possession recently, pulls the other way and leaves nobody in front at 35% to 30%. The draw sits at 35%, up from a 27% starting point mainly because draws come often in Serie B.
Why Cesena in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1335 to 1369. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%).
Why only 35%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Catanzaro hold 9 more possession points (53 to 44 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,112 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw level with the Cesena win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Catanzaro have shed 95 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Cesena are unbeaten in their 5 home Serie B games this season: 1 win and 4 draws. Season's home results covered: 23 August 2026 to 27 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 27 October 2026 — Cesena 2–1 Empoli. Across 5,319 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.4%, compared with 56.3% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Cesena vs Catanzaro, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie B fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Cesena and Catanzaro team pages or the Serie B page.