Virtus Entella vs Modena — Serie B: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
Virtus EntellaModenaVirtus EntellaModenaMatch preview
Virtus Entella host second-placed Modena in Serie B matchday 11
Virtus Entella welcome Modena to Stadio Comunale on Serie B matchday 11 with the two sides a long way apart in the table. Entella, managed by Andrea Chiappella, sit 15th on 10 points after 10 games, while Daniele Galloppa's Modena are second on 20 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Entella's recent results have been modest: one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five, scoring four goals and conceding six. They lost 2-0 at Sampdoria last time out, having been beaten 1-0 at home by Mantova the week before that.
Modena have taken 10 goals from their last five games, winning three, drawing one and losing one. They drew 1-1 at home to Mantova last time out, and in their last five away games they have won three and drawn one, with only one defeat.
Across their last 2 meetings, Virtus Entella won 1, Modena won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Virtus Entella 2–1 Modena on 3 March 2026. Modena's latest win in this sample was Modena 2–0 Virtus Entella on 5 October 2025.
Modena have won three of their last five and Entella one, with Entella failing to score in two of those five games.
Both sides have faced Mantova recently: Entella lost 1-0 at home to them, while Modena drew 1-1 with them at home.
Virtus Entella meet Modena in the Serie B (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Stadio Comunale Enrico Sannazzari.
Team pages: Virtus Entella · Modena · Serie B
Sirius · Why these numbers
Virtus Entella 26% · Draw 37% · Modena 37%
Modena's stronger rating, but the draw runs level — Modena sit 115 points higher on our strength rating, and home sides in Serie B tend to under-perform, so we give them 37% to Virtus Entella's 26%. The draw is just as likely at 37%, starting from 28% for a gap this size and raised mainly by Serie B's usual draw rate.
Why Modena at 37%?
Modena sit 115 points higher on our strength rating — 1450 to 1335. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.0%). Serie B homes won 41.6% of 4,112 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Modena hold 8 more possession points (59 to 51 in recent games) across a 115-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%. The 300 most similar past games finished 37–32–31.
Why only 37%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 37% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 37% and Virtus Entella at 26%.
Why is the draw level with the Modena win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.0 points. The goals environment adds 1.5 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Modena scored +0.32 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Last five: Virtus Entella D-W-L-D-L, Modena W-L-W-W-D — Modena are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Virtus Entella vs Modena, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Serie B fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Virtus Entella and Modena team pages or the Serie B page.