DC United vs New York City FC — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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DC UnitedNew York City FCDC UnitedNew York City FCMatch preview
DC United host New York City FC with five straight defeats behind them
DC United welcome New York City FC to Audi Field on Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer, with René Weiler's side having lost their last five games. They sit 28th in the table on 33 points from 33 matches, and their latest outing ended in a 3-0 defeat at Columbus Crew.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Pascal Jansen's New York City FC arrive 23rd on 39 points, five places and six points above their hosts. Their last five games brought one win, three draws and one defeat, the most recent a 1-1 draw with CF Montreal at home.
Both sides have faced Orlando City SC this month. DC United lost 4-1 away to them on 17 October, while New York City drew 2-2 at Orlando City on 24 October. Across their last five, DC United have scored three goals and conceded 13.
Across their last 5 meetings, DC United won 2, New York City FC won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was New York City FC 0–2 DC United on 3 May 2026. New York City FC's latest win in this sample was New York City FC 2–0 DC United on 20 April 2024.
DC United have lost all five of their recent games, while New York City FC have won one, drawn three and lost one of theirs.
Both clubs have faced Orlando City SC away this month: DC United lost 4-1 on 17 October and New York City FC drew 2-2 a week later.
DC United meet New York City FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC at Audi Field. Referee: M. Thompson.
Team pages: DC United · New York City FC · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
DC United 40% · Draw 26% · New York City FC 34%
Strong home edge in Major League Soccer lifts DC United — Our strength rating has New York City FC 141 points higher, but DC United lead because home sides in Major League Soccer do unusually well and DC United's cold finishing streak is the kind that tends to bounce back. The draw sits at 26%, just under its usual 28% for a gap this size, nudged down by that finishing streak and slightly by typical scoring levels.
Why DC United at 40%?
Home ground, against the rating. New York City FC sit 141 points higher on our strength rating — 1475 to 1333. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,297 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. DC United sit -0.68 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why only 40%?
Because New York City FC are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 26% and New York City FC at 34%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
New York City FC have averaged 13 percentage points more possession than DC United in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. DC United won 3 of the last 6 meetings with New York City FC. The record is 3 wins for DC United, 2 draws and 1 win for New York City FC. These were 6 Major League Soccer games played at both grounds between 7 October 2023 and 3 May 2026. Latest meeting: 3 May 2026 — New York City FC 0–2 DC United. In 5,573 historical matches between similarly rated teams, home sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 44.0%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for DC United vs New York City FC, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the DC United and New York City FC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.