Inter Miami vs Charlotte — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Inter MiamiCharlotteInter MiamiCharlotteMatch preview
Inter Miami host Charlotte in Major League Soccer on Matchday 34
Inter Miami welcome Charlotte to Nu Stadium on Matchday 34 of Major League Soccer, with the hosts third in the table on 59 points from 33 games. Charlotte sit seventh on 53 points from the same number of matches, six points and four places behind. Kily Gonzalez's side go into the fixture having won at New England Revolution last time out.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Dean Smith's Charlotte arrive after back-to-back 4-0 home wins, over CF Montreal and Orlando City SC. Those results followed a 3-2 defeat at Portland Timbers and a 2-2 draw at Philadelphia Union, and a 3-1 loss at Columbus Crew before that. Across their last five, Charlotte have scored 13 goals and conceded eight, with two clean sheets.
Miami's recent form is steadier at the back: nine scored and six conceded across their last five, with one clean sheet. Of their last five home games, Miami have won two, drawn three and lost none, scoring 12 and conceding six. Charlotte's last five away games brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with 12 goals conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, Inter Miami won 2, Charlotte won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Charlotte 0–0 Inter Miami on 14 March 2026. Inter Miami's latest win in this sample was Inter Miami 1–0 Charlotte on 9 March 2025. Charlotte's latest win in this sample was Charlotte 3–0 Inter Miami on 13 September 2025.
Inter Miami have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five, while Charlotte have won two, drawn one and lost two but scored 13 goals in that spell to Miami's nine.
Inter Miami are unbeaten in their last five home games, while Charlotte have conceded 12 goals in their last five away games.
Inter Miami meet Charlotte in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC at Nu Stadium. Referee: Rubiel Vazquez.
Team pages: Inter Miami · Charlotte · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Inter Miami 63% · Draw 21% · Charlotte 16%
Strong home advantage in Major League Soccer puts Inter Miami ahead — We give Inter Miami 63%, mainly because home sides in Major League Soccer do better than the global norm, and their habit of controlling the ball, 57 to 47 in possession lately, adds to that. The draw drops to 21% from a usual 27%, lowered by both sides' recent games averaging 3.5 goals and by finishing streaks.
Why Inter Miami at 63%?
Inter Miami sit 52 points higher on our strength rating — 1595 to 1543. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 11,124 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,297 games vs 44.6% across all 108,407 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Inter Miami hold 10 more possession points (57 to 47 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.5% of 5,645 games, vs 44.1% when styles were level.
Why only 63%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 63% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 21% and Charlotte at 16%.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,729. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Inter Miami scored +0.40 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.4% of 1,688 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Inter Miami vs Charlotte, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Inter Miami and Charlotte team pages or the Major League Soccer page.