Birmingham vs 17.10.26 14:003 – 0Full Time
QPR — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Millar double helps Birmingham beat QPR 3-0 at St. Andrew's Stadium
Birmingham beat QPR 3-0 at St. Andrew's Stadium in the Championship on matchday 11, a result that ended the visitors' run of five games unbeaten. The hosts led at the break through a single goal and sealed the points with one more early in the second half and another in stoppage time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Liam Millar opened the scoring in the 27th minute, converting a chance created by Tomoki Iwata. Iwata supplied the pass again four minutes after the restart, in the 49th minute, and Millar finished to make it 2-0. QPR, who had four corners to Birmingham's none, could not find a way back into the contest.
Demarai Gray added the third in the 90+1 minute, set up by Luis Vázquez, to give the scoreline a comfortable look. Birmingham, who went into the game level on 17 points with QPR, finished the day on 20 points and fifth in the table, while QPR stayed on 17 and dropped to ninth. Both sides play next on Saturday 24 October: Birmingham are away to Cardiff, and QPR are at home to Swansea.
Liam Millar scored twice and earned a rating of 9.72, the highest of any player on the pitch. Tomoki Iwata was behind both of those goals, providing two assists.
The shot count was close, with QPR having 12 attempts to Birmingham's 11, yet Birmingham put five on target to the visitors' four.
Birmingham beat QPR 3–0 (half-time 1–0).
Birmingham met QPR in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at St. Andrew's Stadium. Referee: Thomas Kirk.
Team pages: Birmingham · QPR · Championship
Key moments
- 27' Goal: Liam Millar (assist: Tomoki Iwata) — 1–0
- 49' Goal: Liam Millar (assist: Tomoki Iwata) — 2–0
- 90' Goal: Demarai Gray (assist: Luis Vázquez) — 3–0
Starting line-ups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
QPR (5-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Birmingham 49%, the draw 28%, QPR 23%. It finished Birmingham 3–0 QPR.
Strength rating gives Birmingham a slight lean — We give Birmingham 49% mainly because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1470 to 1415, though home advantage running weak across the Championship pulls a little towards QPR. The draw sits at 28%, starting from the usual 27% for a gap this size, nudged up by the Championship's draw rate and slightly down by typical scoring.
Why Birmingham at 49%?
Birmingham sit 56 points higher on our strength rating — 1470 to 1415. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.3% of 10,400 such games.
Why only 49%?
Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,475 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the QPR win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,198. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Birmingham are unbeaten in their 5 home Championship games this season: 1 win and 4 draws. Season's home results covered: 22 August 2026 to 13 October 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 13 October 2026 — Birmingham 4–0 Preston. Across 4,883 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.1%, compared with 56.1% expected from team strength. Out: Amadou Mbengue, an important player, and Dennis Cirkin, on a provisional rating. Doubtful: Rumarn Burrell, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Birmingham vs QPR final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Birmingham 3–0 QPR. Explore more on the Birmingham and QPR team pages or the Championship page.