Derby vs 17.10.26 14:000 – 1Full Time
Stoke City — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Graham's second-half goal gives Stoke City win at Derby
Stoke City won 1-0 at Derby's Pride Park Stadium in Championship Matchday 11, a result that left the hosts without a win in seven games. The visitors, who began the day ninth, finished it seventh on 19 points, while Derby stayed 23rd on six.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half passed without a goal, the sides level at 0-0 at the interval. Stoke made the breakthrough four minutes after the restart. Ethan Galbraith supplied the assist and Luke Graham scored in the 49th minute, and it proved the only goal of the afternoon.
Derby pressed for an equaliser but could not find one, even though they had the larger share of the ball and the greater number of attempts. Stoke defended their lead through the closing stages, with Luca Bombino among their better performers, and took all three points.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Stoke City a 26% chance of winning. Derby travel to Sheffield Utd on Saturday 24 October in the Championship, the same day Stoke host Bristol City in the league.
Luke Graham scored the only goal of the match, in the 49th minute from Ethan Galbraith's assist, and earned the match's highest rating of 8.25. Joe Ward was the best-rated Derby player on 7.61.
Derby had 17 shots to Stoke's 12, but only three of them were on target, against four from the visitors.
Stoke City won 1–0 away against Derby (half-time 0–0).
Derby met Stoke City in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Pride Park Stadium. Referee: Oliver Langford.
Team pages: Derby · Stoke City · Championship
Key moments
- 49' Goal: Luke Graham (assist: Ethan Galbraith) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Derby (4-2-3-1)
- 31 Josh Vickers
- 26 Ryan Hedges
- 28 Dion Sanderson
- 24 Ryan Nyambe
- 23 Joe Ward
- 27 Lewis Travis (c)
- 4 David Ozoh
- 11 Sammie Szmodics
- 8 Bobby Clark
- 16 Mohammed Fuseini
- 9 Carlton Morris
Stoke City (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Derby 49%, the draw 25%, Stoke City 26%. It finished Derby 0–1 Stoke City.
Derby's control of the ball gives them a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Derby's usual control of the ball (50 to 44 possession in recent games) is the main reason we give them 49%, alongside their home advantage. The draw sits at 25%, starting from 27% between sides this level and pulled down mainly because Stoke City's hot finishing streak tends to cool.
Why Derby in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1368 to 1375. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,828 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%). Derby hold 6 more possession points (50 to 44 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.2% of 5,150 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level. Stoke City scored +0.76 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.2% of 1,469 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 49%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,475 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 25%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,198. The cool-off factor takes 2.5 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Derby have shed 62 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,610 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Stoke City have gained 63 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,205 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Derby vs Stoke City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Derby 0–1 Stoke City. Explore more on the Derby and Stoke City team pages or the Championship page.