Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United — FA Cup: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United — the facts
Bristol Rovers meet Cambridge United in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 19:30 UTC at Memorial Stadium.
Team pages: Bristol Rovers · Cambridge United · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Bristol Rovers 37% · Draw 32% · Cambridge United 31%
Home advantage edges Bristol Rovers ahead of stronger visitors — Bristol Rovers lead slightly at 37% to 31% thanks to the usual home advantage, even though Cambridge United sit 69 points higher on our strength rating, 1338 to 1269. The draw starts at 29%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and rises to 32% because both sides' own recent games average just 2.1 goals.
Why Bristol Rovers at 37%?
Home ground, against the rating. Cambridge United sit 69 points higher on our strength rating — 1338 to 1269. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games.
Why only 37%?
Because Cambridge United are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 32% and Cambridge United at 31%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Cambridge United win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.1% of 19,748. The goals environment adds 3.2 points to the draw.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United team pages or the FA Cup page.