Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town — FA Cup: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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Leyton Orient
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Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town — the facts
Leyton Orient meet Harborough Town in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Matchroom Stadium.
Team pages: Leyton Orient · Harborough Town · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Leyton Orient 32% · Draw 29% · Harborough Town 39%
Strength rating gives Harborough Town a slight lean — Harborough Town sit 150 points higher on our strength rating, 1455 to 1305, which outweighs the usual home advantage Leyton Orient start with, so we give the visitors 39% to the hosts' 32%. The draw sits at 29%, starting from 28% for a gap this size and nudged up because both sides' recent games average a typical 2.7 goals.
Why Harborough Town at 39%?
Harborough Town sit 150 points higher on our strength rating — 1455 to 1305. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 31–24–45.
Why only 39%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 39% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Leyton Orient at 32%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Harborough Town's last five in the competitions we cover: W-W-W — the hotter side across the games we track. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder. Harborough Town arrive with 19 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Leyton Orient bring a 25-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Leyton Orient and Harborough Town team pages or the FA Cup page.