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Plymouth
AlvechurchMatch preview
Plymouth vs Alvechurch — the facts
Plymouth meet Alvechurch in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Home Park.
Team pages: Plymouth · Alvechurch · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Plymouth 44% · Draw 25% · Alvechurch 31%
Home advantage gives Plymouth a slight edge — Almost nothing separates the sides on our strength rating, 1343 to 1373, with Alvechurch's small edge there pulling against Plymouth, but the usual home advantage puts Plymouth slightly in front at 44%. The draw starts from 27% for sides this level and drops to 25% because both teams' own recent games average 3.9 goals.
Why Plymouth in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1343 to 1373. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%).
Why only 44%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 25% and Alvechurch at 31%.
Why the draw at 25%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Alvechurch arrive with 11 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Plymouth bring a 121-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Plymouth vs Alvechurch, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Plymouth and Alvechurch team pages or the FA Cup page.