Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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LutonForest GreenLutonForest GreenMatch preview
Luton vs Forest Green — the facts
Luton meet Forest Green in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Kenilworth Road.
Team pages: Luton · Forest Green · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Luton 48% · Draw 25% · Forest Green 27%
Home advantage gives level Luton a slight edge — Our strength rating has almost nothing between the sides, 1397 to 1386, so the usual home advantage is what gives Luton a slight lean at 48% to Forest Green's 27%. The draw starts from the usual 28% for sides this level and drops to 25% because both teams' own recent games average 3.9 goals.
Why Luton in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1397 to 1386. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 48%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 25% and Forest Green at 27%.
Why the draw at 25%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Forest Green arrive with 20 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Luton bring a 302-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Luton vs Forest Green, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Luton and Forest Green team pages or the FA Cup page.