Aston Villa vs 24.10.26 11:302 – 1Full Time
Manchester City — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsAston Villa Football ClubYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow3 clips- 6′Aston Villa, goal:1–0assist
- 32′Manchester City, yellow card:
- 38′Manchester City, yellow card:
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Manchester City, substitution:off
- 46′Manchester City, substitution:off
- 52′Manchester City, goal:1–1assist
- 54′Aston Villa, yellow card:
- 55′Aston Villa, yellow card:
- 59′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 60′Aston Villa, goal:2–1assist
- 66′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 66′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 69′Manchester City, substitution:off
- 74′Manchester City, yellow card:
- 76′Manchester City, yellow card:
- 82′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 82′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 83′Aston Villa, yellow card:
- 90+5′Aston Villa, yellow card:
- Full-time2 – 1
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Aston Villa
Manchester City
Match report
Jackson double lifts Aston Villa past Manchester City at Villa Park
Aston Villa beat Premier League leaders Manchester City 2-1 at Villa Park in Matchweek 8, with Nicolas Jackson scoring twice to hand the visitors their first league defeat of the season. Villa took the lead in the sixth minute, Jackson finishing from John McGinn's assist, and held that advantage until the interval.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
City levelled in the 52nd minute when Erling Haaland scored from an Iliman Ndiaye assist, but the home side restored their lead eight minutes later. Jackson struck again in the 60th minute, this time set up by Ibrahim Mbaye, and Villa then defended that 2-1 lead through the closing half-hour.
City dominated the ball, with 63% possession to Villa's 37%, and had 15 shots to 8, seven of them on target against two. Even so, they could not find a second equaliser against a side that had now won four games in a row. The result lifted Villa from 12th to sixth, on 11 points, while City stayed top on 21.
Both sides return to action on Wednesday in the League Cup, Villa away to Bournemouth and City at home to Brighton.
Nicolas Jackson scored both of Villa's goals and took the match's top rating of 8.55. Zion Suzuki was also among the leading performers for the home side, with a rating of 7.6.
City managed 15 shots to Villa's 8, yet seven of them on target brought only one goal.
Aston Villa beat Manchester City 2–1 (half-time 1–0).
Aston Villa met Manchester City in the Premier League (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC at Villa Park. Referee: Peter Bankes. Attendance: 36,743.
Team pages: Aston Villa · Manchester City · Premier League
Key moments
- 6' Goal: Nicolas Jackson (assist: John McGinn) — 1–0 · Watch Nicolas Jackson's goal video (6')
- 52' Goal: Erling Haaland (assist: Iliman Ndiaye) — 1–1 · Watch Erling Haaland's goal video (52')
- 60' Goal: Nicolas Jackson (assist: Ibrahim Mbaye) — 2–1 · Watch Nicolas Jackson's goal video (60')
Starting line-ups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Manchester City (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Aston Villa 34%, the draw 25%, Manchester City 41%. It finished Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City.
City's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Manchester City sit 131 points higher on our strength rating, 2015 to 1883, which puts them in front at 41% even though Aston Villa get the usual home advantage. The draw starts near 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 25% because both sides' own recent games average 3.8 goals.
Why Manchester City at 41%?
Manchester City sit 131 points higher on our strength rating — 2015 to 1883. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,788 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–25–47.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Aston Villa at 34%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,375. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Manchester City have averaged 13 percentage points more possession than Aston Villa in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Manchester City scored +0.47 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,154 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.1% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Aston Villa vs Manchester City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Nicolas Jackson's goal against Manchester City (6').
- Watch Erling Haaland's goal against Aston Villa (52').
- Watch Nicolas Jackson's goal against Manchester City (60').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City. Explore more on the Aston Villa and Manchester City team pages or the Premier League page.