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Leeds seek a first win in six when Tottenham visit Elland Road
Leeds welcome Tottenham to Elland Road in Matchweek 10 of the Premier League, with Daniel Farke's side 12th on 11 points from nine games. They arrive after a 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth on 31 October and have gone five games without a win.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Roberto De Zerbi's Tottenham sit ninth on 12 points, three places and one point above their hosts. They have won their last three games, most recently a 2-0 home victory over Crystal Palace, and scored 10 goals in their last five matches in all competitions.
Leeds have failed to score in three of their last five games, finding the net only twice in that spell. At Elland Road, though, they have lost none of their last five home games, winning two and drawing three.
Across their last 5 meetings, Leeds won 0, Tottenham won 4, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Tottenham 1–1 Leeds on 11 May 2026. Tottenham's latest win in this sample was Leeds 1–2 Tottenham on 4 October 2025.
Tottenham have won three of their last five with two clean sheets, while Leeds are winless in that span, with three draws and two defeats.
Both sides have faced Crystal Palace and Manchester United recently: Leeds drew 0-0 with Palace and 1-1 with United, while Tottenham drew 1-1 at United and beat Palace 2-0.
Leeds meet Tottenham in the Premier League (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 12:30 UTC at Elland Road. Referee: John Brooks.
Team pages: Leeds · Tottenham · Premier League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Leeds 41% · Draw 30% · Tottenham 29%
Home advantage edges Leeds in front of level sides — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, the usual home advantage is what puts Leeds ahead at 41%, though Tottenham's habit of controlling the ball, 62% possession to 49% in recent games, pulls the other way. The draw starts at 27.5%, the usual rate between sides this level, and rises to 30% from Tottenham's control and a typical 2.7-goal average in each side's recent games.
Why Leeds in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1762 to 1743. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 41%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Tottenham hold 13 more possession points (62 to 49 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Tottenham win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Leeds sit -0.33 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Leeds are unbeaten in their last 8 home Premier League games: 4 wins and 4 draws. The run began on 21 March 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 3 March 2026 — Leeds 0–1 Sunderland. Latest home league result: 18 October 2026 — Leeds 1–1 Manchester United. Across 16,587 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 55.2%, compared with 54.2% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Leeds vs Tottenham, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Premier League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Leeds and Tottenham team pages or the Premier League page.