Sunderland vs Chelsea — Premier League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Sunderland host Chelsea in Premier League Matchweek 10 at the Stadium of Light
Sunderland welcome Chelsea to the Stadium of Light in Matchweek 10 with the sides sitting 16 places apart. Régis Le Bris's team are 20th on five points from nine games, while Xabi Alonso's Chelsea are fourth on 16, 11 points clear of their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Sunderland come into the game on a difficult run. They have lost their last two, 3-1 away to Coventry and 0-2 at home to Dinamo Zagreb last time out, and across their last five they have drawn twice, won once, failed to score twice and conceded eight goals.
Chelsea's recent results are more positive. They have won three of their last five, scoring ten and keeping two clean sheets, and beat Manchester United 2-0 at home last time out. A 1-1 draw at Liverpool and a 2-0 home defeat by Tottenham sit in between.
Across their last 5 meetings, Sunderland won 3, Chelsea won 2, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea on 24 May 2026. Chelsea's latest win in this sample was Chelsea 5–1 Sunderland on 21 May 2017.
Chelsea have won three of their last five and scored ten goals, while Sunderland have won one of theirs and conceded eight.
Sunderland have failed to score in three of their last five home games, while Chelsea have won two of their last five away from home.
Sunderland meet Chelsea in the Premier League (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC at Stadium of Light. Referee: Jarred Gillett.
Team pages: Sunderland · Chelsea · Premier League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Sunderland 28% · Draw 22% · Chelsea 50%
Chelsea's strength edge, with Sunderland due a lift — Chelsea lead mainly because our strength rating puts them 165 points higher, 1811 to 1646, though Sunderland's finishing has fallen short of their chances and cold streaks like that have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 22%, below its usual 25.3% for a gap this size, because both sides' recent games average 3.5 goals and that finishing streak lowers it.
Why Chelsea at 50%?
Chelsea sit 165 points higher on our strength rating — 1811 to 1646. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.5% of 7,223 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 24–24–52.
Why only 50%?
Sunderland sit -0.80 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Chelsea come into this after a busy window — 12 arrivals, 17 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Last five: Sunderland D-D-W-L-L, Chelsea W-W-L-D-W — Chelsea are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Sunderland vs Chelsea, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Premier League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Sunderland and Chelsea team pages or the Premier League page.