Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — Premier League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Nottingham ForestManchester CityNottingham ForestManchester CityMatch preview
Nottingham Forest host Manchester City in Premier League Matchweek 10
Nottingham Forest welcome Manchester City to the City Ground in Matchweek 10 of the Premier League, with Oliver Glasner's side 19th on six points from nine games. They have gone five games without a win, and have lost four of their last five in all competitions.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Manchester City, managed by E. Maresca, arrive second on 21 points from nine games, 17 places and 15 points above their hosts. Their recent run has been mixed: two wins, a draw and two defeats from five, including a 3-2 victory at RB Leipzig on 4 November, their most recent game.
Forest's home form makes the starkest reading. In their last five home games they have lost four and drawn one, failing to score in five of those games and netting no goals in total. City, by contrast, have won four of their last five away games, scoring ten and keeping three clean sheets.
Across their last 5 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 1, Manchester City won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham Forest on 4 March 2026. Nottingham Forest's latest win in this sample was Nottingham Forest 1–0 Manchester City on 8 March 2025. Manchester City's latest win in this sample was Nottingham Forest 1–2 Manchester City on 27 December 2025.
Forest have lost four of their last five and failed to score in three of them, while City have won two of five and scored 11 goals in that spell.
Forest have failed to score in each of their last five home games, while City have scored in every one of their last five away games.
Nottingham Forest meet Manchester City in the Premier League (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 17:30 UTC at The City Ground. Referee: Samuel Barrott.
Team pages: Nottingham Forest · Manchester City · Premier League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Nottingham Forest 19% · Draw 22% · Manchester City 59%
Manchester City's strength gap drives a clear lead — We give Manchester City 59% mainly because our strength rating puts them 262 points higher, 1984 to 1721, which outweighs the usual home advantage Nottingham Forest start with. The draw sits at 22%, a little below the usual 24% for a gap this size, because both sides' own recent games average 3.3 goals.
Why Manchester City at 59%?
Manchester City sit 262 points higher on our strength rating — 1984 to 1721. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 20–26–54.
Why only 59%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 59% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 22% and Nottingham Forest at 19%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.4%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Manchester City have averaged 14 percentage points more possession than Nottingham Forest in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Nottingham Forest have shed 75 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Premier League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Nottingham Forest and Manchester City team pages or the Premier League page.