Match report
Cagliari held by Juventus after Kolo Muani cancels out Maldini's opener
Cagliari and Juventus drew 1-1 at the Unipol Domus in Serie A on Matchday 6, the visitors rescuing a point nine minutes from time after being outplayed in the first half and pegged back for long spells thereafter. The result lifted Cagliari to 13 points and fourth place, while Juventus moved to 11 points and sixth.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The home side struck first on 20 minutes. Daniel Maldini finished a move supplied by P. Mendy to make it 1-0, and Fabio Pisacane's team took that advantage into the interval. For much of the evening they defended in numbers, ceding 72 per cent of possession to a Juventus side managed by Luciano Spalletti.
Juventus carried the pressure into the second half and eventually found a way through on 81 minutes. Kerim-Sam Alajbegović delivered the pass and Randal Kolo Muani converted to make it 1-1. Neither side added to the scoring in the closing stages, and the match finished level with two goals in total.
Elia Caprile earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 8.56, for a goalkeeping display that kept Cagliari ahead until the 81st minute despite Juventus's sustained pressure.
Juventus had 22 shots to Cagliari's 4, a gap that reflected how one-sided the territorial battle was.
Cagliari and Juventus drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Cagliari met Juventus in the Serie A (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Unipol Domus. Referee: Matteo Marcenaro.
Key moments
- 20' Goal: Daniel Maldini (assist: P. Mendy) — 1–0 · Watch Daniel Maldini's goal video (20')
- 81' Goal: Randal Kolo Muani (assist: Kerim-Sam Alajbegović) — 1–1 · Watch Randal Kolo Muani's goal video (81')
Starting line-ups
Cagliari (4-3-2-1)
Juventus (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Cagliari 18%, the draw 29%, Juventus 53%. It finished Cagliari 1–1 Juventus.
Juventus' rating gap, but the draw is in play — Juventus are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade plus their cold finishing due to recover on top give Juventus the lean. The draw at 29% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Juventus at 53%?
Juventus sit 172 points higher on our strength rating — 1636 to 1808. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,681 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Cagliari's column. Across 11,278 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. Juventus sit -0.48 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.6% of 2,512 such games where the class table expected 35.9%. The 300 most similar past games finished 24–24–52.
Why only 53%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 53% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Cagliari at 18%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Cagliari win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.2 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,733. The goals environment adds 2.9 points to the draw. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Juventus have averaged 12 percentage points more possession than Cagliari in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Cagliari have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Cagliari vs Juventus final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Daniel Maldini's goal against Juventus (20').
- Watch Randal Kolo Muani's goal against Cagliari (81').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Cagliari 1–1 Juventus. Explore more on the Cagliari and Juventus team pages or the Serie A page.