Match report
Wolves come from behind to beat Burnley at Turf Moor
Wolves won 2-1 at Turf Moor in the Championship on Matchday 11, coming from a goal down to leave Burnley in 21st place. Jamie Vardy gave the hosts the lead in the 20th minute, converting a chance created by Jacob Bruun Larsen, but it proved the only goal Nicky Hayen's side managed on the night.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Wolves levelled before the break. Fer López scored in the 39th minute from a Sean Neave assist, and the sides went in at 1-1. Burnley had the better of the opening exchanges, yet the visitors found their rhythm as the half wore on and carried that into the second period.
The decisive goal arrived in the 72nd minute, when Tawanda Chirewa finished from Mateus Mane's pass to make it 2-1 to the away side. Wolves finished with 20 shots to Burnley's 15 and eight on target to four, and held on to move up to seventh on 17 points, nine clear of Burnley, who stayed on 8.
Burnley, who had drawn three of their previous five games, have still not won at home in their last five league fixtures at Turf Moor, drawing four of them. Wolves host Portsmouth in the Championship on Tuesday, while Burnley travel to Lincoln in the Championship on Saturday.
Fer López scored the equaliser just before half-time and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 7.83. Jacob Bruun Larsen, who set up Vardy's opener, was the best-rated Burnley player on 7.7.
Wolves put eight of their 20 shots on target, double the four Burnley managed from their 15 attempts.
Wolves won 2–1 away against Burnley (half-time 1–1).
Burnley met Wolves in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Friday, 16 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Turf Moor. Referee: Lewis Smith.
Team pages: Burnley · Wolves · Championship
Key moments
- 20' Goal: Jamie Vardy (assist: Jacob Bruun Larsen) — 1–0 · Watch Jamie Vardy's goal video (20')
- 39' Goal: Fer López (assist: Sean Neave) — 1–1 · Watch Fer López's goal video (39')
- 72' Goal: Tawanda Chirewa (assist: Mateus Mane) — 1–2 · Watch Tawanda Chirewa's goal video (72')
Starting line-ups
Burnley (4-2-3-1)
Wolves (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Burnley 31%, the draw 29%, Wolves 40%. It finished Burnley 1–2 Wolves.
Wolves' stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Wolves sit 96 points higher on our strength rating, 1564 to 1468, and home advantage running weak across the Championship adds a little more, so we give them 40% to Burnley's 31%. The draw starts near 28% for a gap this size, rises with the usual Championship draw rate and dips slightly for typical scoring, landing at 29%.
Why Wolves at 40%?
Wolves sit 96 points higher on our strength rating — 1564 to 1468. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,843 such games. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,474 games vs 44.6% across all 101,242 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 40–28–32.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Burnley at 31%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,191. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Burnley have shed 78 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,606 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. In our recorded league results, Wolves are winless in their last 21 away games: 6 draws and 15 defeats. The run began on 2 May 2025. Last recorded away league win: 20 April 2025 — Manchester United 0–1 Wolves. Latest recorded away league result: 24 May 2026 — Burnley 1–1 Wolves. Across 13,756 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 25.6%, compared with 25.0% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Burnley vs Wolves final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Jamie Vardy's goal against Wolves (20').
- Watch Fer López's goal against Burnley (39').
- Watch Tawanda Chirewa's goal against Burnley (72').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Burnley 1–2 Wolves. Explore more on the Burnley and Wolves team pages or the Championship page.