Eibar vs Sun 27 Sept16:30 Scheduled
Las Palmas — Segunda División: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Eibar vs Las Palmas — the facts
Eibar meet Las Palmas in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 16:30 UTC at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua.
Team pages: Eibar · Las Palmas · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Eibar 43% · Draw 28% · Las Palmas 29%
Level sides, home ground holds off Las Palmas' control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Las Palmas' hot finishing due to cool gives Eibar the lean. The draw at 28% is what level sides usually produce.
Why Eibar in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1685 to 1650. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,717 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Las Palmas scored +0.32 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 28.8% of 1,519 games, vs 29.2% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 43%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Las Palmas hold 14 more possession points (55 to 41 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.3% across 5,603 games, from 43.9% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 28%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,897. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw. The cool-off factor takes 1.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Las Palmas are 6 games into a new manager (Rubén De La Barrera), appointed 41 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Last five: Eibar W-W-W-W-W, Las Palmas W-L-D-W-L — Eibar are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.6% of 2215 games when clearly hotter and 42.7% of 4044 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Eibar vs Las Palmas, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Eibar and Las Palmas team pages or the Segunda División page.
Quick answers
›What time does Eibar vs Las Palmas kick off?
Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 16:30 UTC at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, a Segunda División fixture (matchday 7).
›Where can I watch Eibar vs Las Palmas goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between Eibar and Las Palmas?
Eibar and Las Palmas have met 10 times — 5 wins for Eibar, 3 wins for Las Palmas and 2 draws.