Match preview
Burgos vs Eldense — the facts
Burgos meet Eldense in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Team pages: Burgos · Eldense · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Burgos 56% · Draw 26% · Eldense 18%
Burgos' rating edge carries it — Burgos are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Burgos' 56%. The draw at 26% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Burgos at 56%?
Burgos sit 194 points higher on our strength rating — 1650 to 1456. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,848 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 62–24–14.
Why only 56%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 56% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Eldense at 18%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,897. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Burgos scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,895 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Burgos are unbeaten in their last 15 home Segunda División games: 9 wins and 6 draws. The run began on 21 December 2025. Last recorded home league defeat: 8 December 2025 — Burgos 0–1 Albacete. Latest home league result: 11 September 2026 — Burgos 3–1 AD Ceuta FC. Across 13,654 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.3%, compared with 54.5% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Burgos vs Eldense, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Burgos and Eldense team pages or the Segunda División page.
Quick answers
›What time does Burgos vs Eldense kick off?
Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 16:30 UTC, a Segunda División fixture (matchday 7).
›Where can I watch Burgos vs Eldense goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between Burgos and Eldense?
Burgos and Eldense have met 5 times — 1 win for Burgos, 3 wins for Eldense and 1 draw.