Match preview
Tenerife vs Cadiz — the facts
Tenerife meet Cadiz in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Team pages: Tenerife · Cadiz · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Tenerife 49% · Draw 28% · Cadiz 23%
Tenerife's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Tenerife are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and that is most of Tenerife's 49%. The draw at 28% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Tenerife at 49%?
Tenerife sit 100 points higher on our strength rating — 1508 to 1408. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.4% of 10,499 such games.
Why only 49%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 49% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Cadiz at 23%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Cadiz win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,897. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
In our recorded league results, Cadiz are winless in their last 8 away games: 3 draws and 5 defeats. The run began on 28 March 2026. Last recorded away league win: 13 March 2026 — Mirandes 0–2 Cadiz. Latest recorded away league result: 6 September 2026 — Almeria 3–2 Cadiz. Across 13,706 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 25.8%, compared with 24.9% expected from team strength. Tenerife are newly promoted — game 7 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Tenerife vs Cadiz, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Tenerife and Cadiz team pages or the Segunda División page.
Quick answers
›What time does Tenerife vs Cadiz kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:30 UTC, a Segunda División fixture (matchday 7).
›Where can I watch Tenerife vs Cadiz goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between Tenerife and Cadiz?
Tenerife and Cadiz have met 10 times — 4 wins for Tenerife, 2 wins for Cadiz and 4 draws.