AD Ceuta FC vs Sat 26 Sept12:00 Scheduled
Real Sociedad II — Segunda División: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II — the facts
AD Ceuta FC meet Real Sociedad II in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 12:00 UTC at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.
Team pages: AD Ceuta FC · Real Sociedad II · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
AD Ceuta FC 43% · Draw 27% · Real Sociedad II 30%
Level sides, only home ground separates them — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and AD Ceuta FC's 43% is home ground and little else. The draw at 27% is what level sides usually produce.
Why AD Ceuta FC in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1482 to 1492. Sides this close won 43.1% of 16,066 home games (draw 26.7%, visitors 30.2%).
Why only 43%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 27% and Real Sociedad II at 30%.
Why the draw at 27%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,179.
What did we measure but not count?
AD Ceuta FC come into this after a busy window — 16 arrivals and 15 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Last five: AD Ceuta FC L-L-L-L-D, Real Sociedad II W-D-D-W-L — Real Sociedad II are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.6% of 2215 games when clearly hotter and 42.7% of 4044 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II team pages or the Segunda División page.
Quick answers
›What time does AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 12:00 UTC at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, a Segunda División fixture (matchday 7).
›Where can I watch AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II?
AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II have met 2 times — 1 win for AD Ceuta FC, 0 wins for Real Sociedad II and 1 draw.