Match preview
Leganes vs Castellón — the facts
Leganes meet Castellón in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off is Monday, 28 September 2026, 18:30 UTC at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
Team pages: Leganes · Castellón · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Leganes 29% · Draw 32% · Castellón 39%
Castellón's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Castellón are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Castellón the lean. The draw at 32% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Castellón at 39%?
Castellón sit 150 points higher on our strength rating — 1531 to 1681. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,218 such games. Castellón hold 13 more possession points (60 to 47 in recent games) across a 150-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,708 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–27–40.
Why only 39%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 39% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 32% and Leganes at 29%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Leganes win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.1% of 18,243. The goals environment adds 3.5 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Leganes have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Castellón won 3 of the last 4 meetings with Leganes. The record is 3 wins for Castellón, 1 draw and 0 wins for Leganes. These were 4 Segunda División games played between 4 October 2020 and 16 January 2026. Latest meeting: 16 January 2026 — Castellón 2–0 Leganes. In 5,651 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.1%.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Leganes vs Castellón, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Leganes and Castellón team pages or the Segunda División page.
Quick answers
›What time does Leganes vs Castellón kick off?
Kick-off is Monday, 28 September 2026, 18:30 UTC at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, a Segunda División fixture (matchday 7).
›Where can I watch Leganes vs Castellón goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Castellón?
Leganes and Castellón have met 4 times — 0 wins for Leganes, 3 wins for Castellón and 1 draw.