Match preview
Mallorca vs Almeria — the facts
Mallorca meet Almeria in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 14:15 UTC at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
Team pages: Mallorca · Almeria · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Mallorca 56% · Draw 28% · Almeria 16%
Mallorca's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Mallorca are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Mallorca a clear lead. The draw at 28% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Mallorca at 56%?
Mallorca sit 148 points higher on our strength rating — 1787 to 1639. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,848 such games. Mallorca hold 6 more possession points (56 to 50 in recent games) across a 148-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,708 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 56–27–17.
Why only 56%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 56% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Almeria at 16%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Almeria win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.2 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.1% of 18,243. The goals environment adds 3.2 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Mallorca are unbeaten in their last 9 home league games: 7 wins and 2 draws. The run began on 15 March 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 28 February 2026 — Mallorca 0–1 Real Sociedad. Latest home league result: 13 September 2026 — Mallorca 2–0 Sabadell. Across 13,654 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.3%, compared with 54.5% expected from team strength. Mallorca are 6 games into a new manager (Luis García), appointed 42 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Mallorca vs Almeria, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Mallorca and Almeria team pages or the Segunda División page.
Quick answers
›What time does Mallorca vs Almeria kick off?
Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 14:15 UTC at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, a Segunda División fixture (matchday 7).
›Where can I watch Mallorca vs Almeria goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Almeria?
Mallorca and Almeria have met 10 times — 5 wins for Mallorca, 3 wins for Almeria and 2 draws.