Liechtenstein vs Thu 24 Sept18:45 Scheduled
Lithuania — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Liechtenstein vs Lithuania — the facts
Liechtenstein meet Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Liechtenstein · Lithuania · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Liechtenstein 25% · Draw 20% · Lithuania 55%
Lithuania's rating gap outweighs Liechtenstein's home ground — Lithuania are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Lithuania's 55%. The draw at 20% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Lithuania at 55%?
Lithuania sit 363 points higher on our strength rating — 947 to 1310. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge on the road won 65.9% of 5,262 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 27–23–50.
Why only 55%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 55% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 20% and Liechtenstein at 25%.
Why is the draw only 20%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 22.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 1.9 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Lithuania have averaged 18 percentage points more possession than Liechtenstein in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Liechtenstein (8 fully-tracked matches with us) and Lithuania (8) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Liechtenstein vs Lithuania, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Liechtenstein and Lithuania team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Liechtenstein vs Lithuania kick off?
Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Liechtenstein vs Lithuania goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.