Match preview
Portugal vs Wales — the facts
Portugal meet Wales in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Portugal · Wales · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Portugal 72% · Draw 15% · Wales 13%
Portugal's rating gap decides it — Portugal are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Portugal's 72%. The draw at 15% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Portugal at 72%?
Portugal sit 299 points higher on our strength rating — 2012 to 1713. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 6,016 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 72–16–12.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 72% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 15% and Wales at 13%.
Why is the draw only 15%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 16.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 1.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Portugal (16 fully-tracked matches with us) and Wales (9) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Portugal vs Wales, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Portugal and Wales team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Portugal vs Wales kick off?
Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Portugal vs Wales goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.