Georgia vs Fri 25 Sept16:00 Scheduled
Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Georgia vs Northern Ireland — the facts
Georgia meet Northern Ireland in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Friday, 25 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Team pages: Georgia · Northern Ireland · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Georgia 52% · Draw 27% · Northern Ireland 21%
Georgia's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Georgia are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Georgia the lean. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Georgia at 52%?
Georgia sit 93 points higher on our strength rating — 1624 to 1531. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.4% of 10,499 such games. Georgia hold 7 more possession points (44 to 37 in recent games) across a 93-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,708 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why only 52%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 52% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Northern Ireland at 21%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Northern Ireland win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,179. The control factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Georgia (10 fully-tracked matches with us) and Northern Ireland (7) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Georgia vs Northern Ireland, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Georgia and Northern Ireland team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Georgia vs Northern Ireland kick off?
Kick-off is Friday, 25 September 2026, 16:00 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Georgia vs Northern Ireland goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.