Match preview
Serbia vs Greece — the facts
Serbia meet Greece in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Serbia · Greece · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Serbia 51% · Draw 26% · Greece 23%
A slight rating edge to Serbia, little else — Serbia are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and that is most of Serbia's 51%. The draw at 26% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Serbia at 51%?
Serbia sit 56 points higher on our strength rating — 1762 to 1706. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.4% of 10,499 such games.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Greece at 23%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,179.
What did we measure but not count?
Serbia sit -0.41 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Serbia (11 fully-tracked matches with us) and Greece (6) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Serbia vs Greece, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Serbia and Greece team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Serbia vs Greece kick off?
Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Serbia vs Greece goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.