Match preview
Sweden vs Romania — the facts
Sweden meet Romania in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Friday, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Sweden · Romania · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Sweden 45% · Draw 24% · Romania 31%
Level sides, home ground holds off Romania's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Romania's hot finishing due to cool gives Sweden the lean. The draw at 24% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Sweden in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1683 to 1655. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,717 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Romania scored +0.43 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 28.8% of 1,519 games, vs 29.2% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 45%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Romania hold 5 more possession points (51 to 46 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.3% across 5,603 games, from 43.9% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 24%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 1.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Sweden (12 fully-tracked matches with us) and Romania (13) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Sweden vs Romania, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Sweden and Romania team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Sweden vs Romania kick off?
Kick-off is Friday, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Sweden vs Romania goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.