Match preview
Andorra vs Malta — the facts
Andorra meet Malta in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Team pages: Andorra · Malta · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Andorra 32% · Draw 29% · Malta 39%
Malta's rating edge outweighs Andorra's home ground — Malta are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Malta's 39%. The draw at 29% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Malta at 39%?
Malta sit 169 points higher on our strength rating — 1092 to 1261. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,218 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 34–29–37.
Why only 39%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 39% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Andorra at 32%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,897. The goals environment adds 1.5 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Malta have averaged 18 percentage points more possession than Andorra in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Andorra (8 fully-tracked matches with us) and Malta (8) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Andorra vs Malta, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Andorra and Malta team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Andorra vs Malta kick off?
Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 16:00 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Andorra vs Malta goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.