Netherlands vs Thu 24 Sept18:45 Scheduled
Germany — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Netherlands vs Germany — the facts
Netherlands meet Germany in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Netherlands · Germany · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Netherlands 45% · Draw 23% · Germany 32%
Level sides, home ground holds off Germany's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Germany's hot finishing due to cool gives Netherlands the lean. The draw at 23% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Netherlands in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1981 to 1937. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,695 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Germany scored +0.64 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 28.8% of 1,512 games, vs 29.1% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 45%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Germany hold 8 more possession points (70 to 62 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.3% across 5,599 games, from 43.9% when styles were level.
Why is the draw only 23%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,298. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 1.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Netherlands (18 fully-tracked matches with us) and Germany (15) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Netherlands vs Germany, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Netherlands and Germany team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Netherlands vs Germany kick off?
Kick-off is Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Netherlands vs Germany goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.