Match preview
Hungary vs Ukraine — the facts
Hungary meet Ukraine in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Friday, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Hungary · Ukraine · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Hungary 41% · Draw 26% · Ukraine 33%
Level sides, home ground holds off Ukraine's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Hungary's 41% is home ground and little else. The draw at 26% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Hungary in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1795 to 1799. Sides this close won 43.1% of 16,066 home games (draw 26.7%, visitors 30.2%).
Why only 41%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Ukraine hold 7 more possession points (51 to 44 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.3% across 5,603 games, from 43.9% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Hungary (9 fully-tracked matches with us) and Ukraine (10) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Hungary vs Ukraine, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Hungary and Ukraine team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Hungary vs Ukraine kick off?
Kick-off is Friday, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Hungary vs Ukraine goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.