Poland vs 25.09.26 18:450 – 0Full Time
Bosnia & Herzegovina — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Poland and Bosnia and Herzegovina share goalless Nations League opener
Poland and Bosnia and Herzegovina opened their League B Group 4 campaigns with a 0–0 draw in Warsaw, leaving both with one point as they try to return to League A. Poland's home opener passed without a win; Bosnia and Herzegovina began with a point away from home.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data and the sources linked below.
Poland had more shots, but Bosnia and Herzegovina's goalkeeper Martin Zlomislić protected the away point. He made two rapid saves from Matty Cash and Sebastian Szymański after half-time and stopped Piotr Zieliński late. Bosnia and Herzegovina had an opening of their own when Marcin Bułka saved Kerim Alajbegović's second-half effort.
Sweden's 2–1 win over Romania in the group's other opening match leaves both teams two points behind Sweden after one game. Poland visit Sweden next on 28 September, while Bosnia and Herzegovina travel to Romania.
Report sources
Poland and Bosnia & Herzegovina drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0).
Poland met Bosnia & Herzegovina in the UEFA Nations League (League B - 1). Kick-off was Friday, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at National Stadium Warsaw. Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou.
Team pages: Poland · Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League
Starting line-ups
Poland (4-4-1-1)
Bosnia & Herzegovina (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Poland 57%, the draw 24%, Bosnia & Herzegovina 19%. It finished Poland 0–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Poland's rating edge carries it — Poland are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Poland's 57%. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Poland at 57%?
Poland sit 146 points higher on our strength rating — 1734 to 1589. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.9% of 13,264 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 64–21–15.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Bosnia & Herzegovina at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,170.
What did we measure but not count?
Poland have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Bosnia & Herzegovina in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Poland scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,824 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.7% vs 42.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Poland 0–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina. Explore more on the Poland and Bosnia & Herzegovina team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.