Match preview
Slovenia vs Scotland — the facts
Slovenia meet Scotland in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Team pages: Slovenia · Scotland · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Slovenia 31% · Draw 32% · Scotland 37%
Scotland's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Scotland are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Scotland the lean. The draw at 32% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Scotland at 37%?
Scotland sit 108 points higher on our strength rating — 1671 to 1779. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,218 such games. Scotland hold 7 more possession points (46 to 39 in recent games) across a 108-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,708 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 39–32–29.
Why only 37%?
Slovenia sit -0.32 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.9% of 2,471 such games where the class table expected 36.4%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Slovenia win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.0 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.1% of 18,243. The goals environment adds 3.5 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Slovenia (10 fully-tracked matches with us) and Scotland (12) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Slovenia vs Scotland, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Slovenia and Scotland team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Slovenia vs Scotland kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 13:00 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Slovenia vs Scotland goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.