Match report
Belgium beat Italy 2-0 to give Van Bommel a winning start
Belgium gave Mark van Bommel a winning start as national-team coach, beating Italy 2-0 in Rome to open their Nations League Group A1 campaign. Mika Godts put them ahead before the interval and Dodi Lukébakio, introduced in the second half, added the second. For Roberto Mancini, returning to Italy’s bench after the country missed the 2026 World Cup, the first test of his new spell ended in a home defeat.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data and the sources linked below.
Belgium were the stronger side before the break, but Italy had its best chances after it. FotMob recorded 21 Italy shots and 56% possession overall, with 1.22 of their 1.52 expected goals coming in the second half; Belgium had 19 attempts. Mancini said Italy could have equalised before conceding the second after an error. Lukébakio, on for Diego Moreira, carried forward and finished from distance to halt that spell of pressure.
Belgium take three points into their next Group A1 fixture against France, while Italy travel to Türkiye on Monday seeking a response. Their previous Nations League meeting in Rome ended 2-2 in October 2024 after Italy had led 2-0. This time Belgium scored first and held on, an encouraging opening result for Van Bommel and an immediate setback for Mancini.
Report sources
Belgium won 2–0 away against Italy (half-time 0–1).
Italy met Belgium in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 1). Kick-off was Friday, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stadio Olimpico. Referee: Daniel Siebert.
Team pages: Italy · Belgium · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 20' Goal: Mika Godts (assist: Kevin De Bruyne) — 0–1 · Watch Mika Godts's goal video (20')
- 69' Goal: Dodi Lukebakio (assist: Charles De Ketelaere) — 0–2
Starting line-ups
Italy (4-3-3)
Belgium (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Italy 34%, the draw 25%, Belgium 41%. It finished Italy 0–2 Belgium.
Belgium's rating edge outweighs Italy's home ground — Belgium are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Belgium's 41%. The draw at 25% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Belgium at 41%?
Belgium sit 86 points higher on our strength rating — 1841 to 1927. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 13,710 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–25–42.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Italy at 34%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.4%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.9% of 17,250. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Italy (14 fully-tracked matches with us) and Belgium (18) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Italy vs Belgium final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Italy 0–2 Belgium. Explore more on the Italy and Belgium team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.