Poland vs Fri 25 Sept18:45 Scheduled
Bosnia & Herzegovina — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina — the facts
Poland meet Bosnia & Herzegovina in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Friday, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Poland · Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Poland 57% · Draw 24% · Bosnia & Herzegovina 19%
Poland's rating edge carries it — Poland are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Poland's 57%. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Poland at 57%?
Poland sit 165 points higher on our strength rating — 1698 to 1533. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,848 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 63–24–13.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Bosnia & Herzegovina at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,179.
What did we measure but not count?
Poland have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Bosnia & Herzegovina in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Poland scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,895 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Poland and Bosnia & Herzegovina team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina kick off?
Kick-off is Friday, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.