Match preview
Iceland vs Estonia — the facts
Iceland meet Estonia in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Team pages: Iceland · Estonia · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Iceland 59% · Draw 22% · Estonia 19%
Iceland's rating edge carries it — Iceland are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Iceland's 59%. The draw at 22% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Iceland at 59%?
Iceland sit 157 points higher on our strength rating — 1513 to 1355. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,848 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 54–24–22.
Why only 59%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 59% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 22% and Estonia at 19%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Iceland have averaged 12 percentage points more possession than Estonia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Iceland scored +0.78 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,895 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Iceland vs Estonia, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Iceland and Estonia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Iceland vs Estonia kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Iceland vs Estonia goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.