Montenegro vs 25.09.26 18:452 – 1Full Time
Cyprus — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Montenegro recover to beat Cyprus in Nations League opener
Montenegro began their League C Group 2 campaign with a 2–1 comeback win over Cyprus in Podgorica. The three points give them a useful start in a group they share with Armenia and Latvia, where the winner earns promotion to League B, although one result cannot settle a six-match race.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data and the sources linked below.
Cyprus struck first through Marcus Edwards in the 55th minute after a goalless first half. Nikola Krstović equalised from the penalty spot in the 66th, then set up Milutin Osmajić for the 86th-minute winner. Krstović's goal and assist made him central to the turnaround, while Cyprus were left without a point despite taking the lead.
Montenegro had 64% possession and 19 shots to Cyprus's 11. The narrow score therefore reflects a match in which Montenegro's greater volume needed a late finish to count. Both teams have a quick chance to respond: Montenegro visit Armenia and Cyprus visit Latvia on 28 September.
Report sources
Montenegro beat Cyprus 2–1 (half-time 0–0).
Montenegro met Cyprus in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 1). Kick-off was Friday, 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stadion pod Goricom. Referee: Daniele Chiffi.
Team pages: Montenegro · Cyprus · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 55' Goal: Marcus Edwards (assist: Nicholas Tsaroulla) — 0–1 · Watch Marcus Edwards's goal video (55')
- 66' Goal (penalty): Nikola Krstović — 1–1 · Watch Nikola Krstović's goal video (66')
- 86' Goal: Milutin Osmajić (assist: Nikola Krstović) — 2–1 · Watch Milutin Osmajić's goal video (86')
Starting line-ups
Montenegro (4-4-2)
Cyprus (4-1-4-1)
- 1 Fabiano
- 14 Giorgos Malekkides
- 3 Nikolas Panagiotou
- 5 K. Sotiriou
- 6 Andreas Shikkis
- 4 Hector Kyprianou
- 21 Marinos Tzionis
- 20 Grigoris Kastanos
- 16 Panagiotis Andreou
- 23 Marcus Edwards
- 9 Ioannis Pittas
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Montenegro 57%, the draw 24%, Cyprus 19%. It finished Montenegro 2–1 Cyprus.
Montenegro's rating edge carries it — Montenegro are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Montenegro's 57%. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Montenegro at 57%?
Montenegro sit 144 points higher on our strength rating — 1478 to 1334. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.9% of 13,264 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 61–20–19.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Cyprus at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,170.
What did we measure but not count?
Montenegro (8 fully-tracked matches with us) and Cyprus (8) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Montenegro vs Cyprus final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Marcus Edwards's goal against Montenegro (55').
- Watch Nikola Krstović's goal against Cyprus (66').
- Watch Milutin Osmajić's goal against Cyprus (86').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Montenegro 2–1 Cyprus. Explore more on the Montenegro and Cyprus team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.