Norwich vs 17.10.26 14:000 – 1Full Time
Portsmouth — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Portsmouth beat Norwich 1-0 as Milovanović penalty deepens hosts' slump
Portsmouth won 1-0 at Carrow Road in the Championship on matchday 11, a single second-half penalty from Marko Milovanović settling a game that offered little between the sides. Norwich's defeat was their sixth in a row, leaving them 21st on nine points after 11 games.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half finished goalless, and the decisive moment arrived in the 51st minute when Milovanović converted from the spot to put the visitors in front. Norwich had more of the ball, with 55 per cent possession to Portsmouth's 45, yet they could not find an equaliser against a side content to defend its lead.
Both teams managed nine shots and two on target, with one corner apiece and 13 fouls each, so the contest was tight in most respects. The win lifted Portsmouth from 18th to 13th, on 14 points from 10 games, five points clear of Norwich in the table.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Portsmouth a 26% chance of winning. Portsmouth travel to Wolves in the Championship on Tuesday, while Norwich are away to Charlton on Saturday.
Regan Poole earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 7.43, in a Portsmouth defensive display that protected Milovanović's penalty.
Portsmouth's expected goals figure of 1.25 was well above Norwich's 0.37, even though shots were level at nine apiece.
Portsmouth won 1–0 away against Norwich (half-time 0–0).
Norwich met Portsmouth in the Championship (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Carrow Road. Referee: Gavin Ward.
Team pages: Norwich · Portsmouth · Championship
Key moments
- 51' Goal (penalty): Marko Milovanović — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Norwich (4-2-3-1)
Portsmouth (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Norwich 48%, the draw 26%, Portsmouth 26%. It finished Norwich 0–1 Portsmouth.
Norwich's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — We give Norwich 48% mainly because our strength rating puts them 65 points higher, 1450 to 1385, though Portsmouth's habit of controlling the ball pulls some way back against that. The draw sits at 26%, near its usual 27% for a gap this size, with high-scoring recent games for both sides lowering it and the Championship's usual draw rate nudging it up.
Why Norwich at 48%?
Norwich sit 65 points higher on our strength rating — 1450 to 1385. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.3% of 10,400 such games.
Why only 48%?
Portsmouth hold 6 more possession points (54 to 48 in recent games) across a 65-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,639 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm). Championship homes won 42.9% of 8,475 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,940. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Portsmouth have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Out: Kenneth McLean and Mohamed Touré, important players, and Ali Ahmed, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Norwich vs Portsmouth final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Norwich 0–1 Portsmouth. Explore more on the Norwich and Portsmouth team pages or the Championship page.