Bulgaria vs Sat 26 Sept16:00 Scheduled
Luxembourg — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg — the facts
Bulgaria meet Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Team pages: Bulgaria · Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Bulgaria 40% · Draw 27% · Luxembourg 33%
Level sides, home ground holds off Luxembourg's cold finishing due to recover — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Bulgaria's 40% is home ground and little else. The draw at 27% is what level sides usually produce.
Why Bulgaria in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1449 to 1469. Sides this close won 43.1% of 16,066 home games (draw 26.7%, visitors 30.2%).
Why only 40%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Luxembourg sit -0.39 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.3% of 1,383 games, vs 29.2% for visitors finishing normally.
Why the draw at 27%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,179.
What did we measure but not count?
A 16-point possession gap between near-equal sides is unusual. Gaps this extreme are too rare to receipt — around 370 measured games, under our 300-game floor — so it's noted at 0 points. Bulgaria (6 fully-tracked matches with us) and Luxembourg (6) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Bulgaria vs Luxembourg, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Bulgaria and Luxembourg team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Bulgaria vs Luxembourg kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Bulgaria vs Luxembourg goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.