Czech Republic vs Sat 26 Sept18:45 Scheduled
Croatia — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Czech Republic vs Croatia — the facts
Czech Republic meet Croatia in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Czech Republic · Croatia · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Czech Republic 24% · Draw 24% · Croatia 52%
Croatia's rating gap outweighs Czech Republic's home ground — Croatia are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Croatia's 52%. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Croatia at 52%?
Croatia sit 213 points higher on our strength rating — 1719 to 1932. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge on the road won 52.0% of 6,109 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 27–21–52.
Why only 52%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 52% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Czech Republic at 24%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,179.
What did we measure but not count?
Croatia have averaged 15 percentage points more possession than Czech Republic in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Last five: Czech Republic L-D-L, Croatia L-W-W-L — Croatia are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.6% of 2215 games when clearly hotter and 42.7% of 4044 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Czech Republic vs Croatia, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Czech Republic and Croatia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Czech Republic vs Croatia kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Czech Republic vs Croatia goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between Czech Republic and Croatia?
Czech Republic and Croatia have met 2 times — 0 wins for Czech Republic, 1 win for Croatia and 1 draw.