Match report
Slovakia vs Moldova — the facts
Slovakia beat Moldova 2–0 (half-time 2–0).
Slovakia met Moldova in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Štadión Tatran. Referee: Juxhin Xhaja.
Team pages: Slovakia · Moldova · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 32' Goal: Ivan Schranz (assist: Tomáš Suslov) — 1–0
- 40' Goal (penalty): Ondrej Duda — 2–0
Starting line-ups
Slovakia (4-3-3)
Moldova (3-5-1-1)
- 12 Dumitru Celeadnic
- 6 Mihail Gherasimencov
- 4 V. Baboglo
- 18 Iurie Iovu
- 2 Oleg Reabciuk
- 11 Victor Stînă
- 22 V. Raţă
- 7 N. Moțpan
- 16 Danila Forov
- 20 Nicky Cleșcenco
- 15 Petru Popescu
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Slovakia 85%, the draw 9%, Moldova 6%. It finished Slovakia 2–0 Moldova.
Slovakia's rating gap decides it — Slovakia are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Slovakia's 85%. The draw at 9% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Slovakia at 85%?
Slovakia sit 393 points higher on our strength rating — 1688 to 1294. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.4% of 5,543 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 85–9–6.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 85% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 9% and Moldova at 6%.
Why is the draw only 9%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 10.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,254.
What did we measure but not count?
Slovakia have averaged 14 percentage points more possession than Moldova in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Slovakia (11 fully-tracked matches with us) and Moldova (8) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Slovakia vs Moldova final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Slovakia 2–0 Moldova. Explore more on the Slovakia and Moldova team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.