Match preview
Albania vs Belarus — the facts
Albania meet Belarus in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Albania · Belarus · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Albania 56% · Draw 26% · Belarus 18%
Albania's rating edge carries it — Albania are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Albania's 56%. The draw at 26% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Albania at 56%?
Albania sit 190 points higher on our strength rating — 1635 to 1445. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,848 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 64–20–16.
Why only 56%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 56% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Belarus at 18%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,897. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Albania have averaged 18 percentage points more possession than Belarus in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Albania (12 fully-tracked matches with us) and Belarus (6) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Albania vs Belarus, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Albania and Belarus team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Albania vs Belarus kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Albania vs Belarus goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.